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Percolation framework to describe El Ni?o conditions
2017-06-28  【 】【打印】【关闭

Institute of Theoretical Physics

Chinese Academy of Sciences

 Key Laboratory of Theoretical Physics

Seminar

Title

题目

Percolation framework to describe El Niño conditions

Speaker

报告人

Jing-fang Fan

Affiliation

所在单位

Bar-Ilan University

Date

日期

3:00pm, Wednesday, June 28, 2017

Venue

地点

Conference Hall 322, ITP

Abstract

摘要

Complex networks have been used intensively to investigate the flow and dynamics of many natural systems including the climate system. Here, we develop a percolation based measure, the order parameter, to study and quantify climate networks. We find that abrupt transitions of the order parameter usually occur ∼1 year before El Niño events, suggesting that they can be used as early warning precursors of El Niño. Using this method, we analyze several reanalysis datasets and show the potential for good forecasting of El Niño. The percolation based order parameter exhibits discontinuous features, indicating a possible relation to the first order phase transition mechanism.

Contact person

所内联系人

Xiao-Song Chen
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